IMEC is caught between commerce and geopolitics

The ongoing war in Iran has shattered many myths and highlighted realities that reveal the structural vulnerabilities of the current world order. Iran, no match for the combined military might and technological superiority of Israel and the United States, not only resisted the military assault but also retaliated in a way that was neither anticipated nor planned. Nearly three months into the conflict, although a fragile ceasefire is in effect, there appears to be no immediate solution to end the war or achieve the political-military goals initially set by Israel and the United States. While Iran suffered major losses in terms of leadership, infrastructure and military assets, the US military also suffered unprecedented losses.

Lessons from the Iranian conflict

A recent report from the US Congressional Research Service noted that 42 US aircraft have been lost or damaged so far during "Operation Epic Fury" – the war with Iran – which includes fifth-generation stealth fighters such as the F-35. Additionally, the ability to intercept Iranian missiles and drones has been severely degraded as more than half of the total inventory of Patriot, Tomahawk, and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missiles has been depleted. With more than 240 U.S. targets reportedly hit by Iran, the conflict shattered the myth that military superiority alone would guarantee total victory. Many of the asymmetric tactics employed by Iran have left the United States and Israel behind.

Another reality highlighted by this war is the critical importance of global chokepoints and how their blockade can seriously disrupt the global economy. Iran, by imposing a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz at the start of the conflict, virtually brought the world economy to its knees. Nearly 20 million barrels of crude oil, representing about a third of the world's oil reserves, pass through this narrow sea passage every day. India is one of the most affected countries, since it imports nearly 88% of its crude oil needs, or around 1.8 billion barrels per year. As the world grapples with the blockade and strives to diversify its energy sources, one thing is clear: there is an urgent need to explore and develop alternative connectivity options beyond existing trade routes, particularly maritime routes. New routes and corridors must be developed to avoid the two “Cs”: conflict zones and choke points.

However, this awareness is not new and countries have not remained inactive in the search for solutions. Transnational connectivity projects such as the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) were designed precisely for this purpose. The INSTC was designed to bypass the Suez Canal chokepoint, while the land component of the BRI across Asia and Europe seeks to reduce reliance on the Strait of Malacca and the Suez Canal. Another major connectivity project is the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). Unlike other initiatives, IMEC passes through parts of West Asia, a region that has been significantly affected by the current conflict.

The IMEC framework

What is IMEC? IMEC is a transformative and ambitious connectivity initiative that was officially announced at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023. It aims to connect India with Europe across the Arabian Peninsula, bypassing the traditional chokepoint of the Suez Canal. The project envisions a multi-modal economic corridor integrating railways, ports, highways, energy networks and digital infrastructure to improve trade, investment and connectivity. Unlike conventional transport corridors, IMEC is designed as a holistic, multi-dimensional infrastructure project encompassing maritime routes, rail networks, pipelines, high-speed underwater data links, green hydrogen corridors and transnational energy transport networks.

The proposed structure has three distinct sections. The eastern section connects India to West Asia via sea links to the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The central section consists of an overland route through Western Asia, passing through the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel, and culminating at the port of Haifa on Israel's Mediterranean coast. The western part of the corridor is maritime and connects Haifa to various European ports, beyond which the continent's vast transport network takes over.

What happened because of the war? Shortly after IMEC's ​​announcement, the war in Gaza broke out on October 7, 2023, putting the project on hold. Major areas of the initially envisioned corridor, particularly those involving Israel and the port of Haifa, have been directly affected by the conflict.

Shortly after the Iran-Israel “12 Day War” in June 2025, a concerted effort was made to advance the project. However, the ongoing conflict involving Iran has once again thrown a spanner in the works. Key ports in the UAE, particularly Jebel Ali and Fujairah, have been repeatedly targeted by Iran, while disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have exposed the geographic vulnerabilities of these ports.

Another critical fault line revealed by the war concerns the deep fractures and differences in the positions taken by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in the war. Both countries are key partners within the IMEC, and any confrontational attitude between them could prove to be a major setback for the corridor, whose success depends on smooth coordination and seamless connectivity across the region. The UAE's April 2026 announcement of its withdrawal from the global oil group, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and reports of its growing strategic coordination with Israel, including the deployment of Israeli defense systems such as the Iron Beam, are likely to widen differences between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Such developments are unlikely to bode well for regional stability or the future of IMEC.

Meet the challenges

The war in Iran has highlighted two important issues for both West Asia and IMEC. First, there is an urgent need for projects like IMEC that can bypass conflict zones and choke points. However, for such initiatives to succeed, they must also navigate the region's geopolitical complexities, including rapidly changing dynamics between key partners such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

To address the first challenge, IMEC must evolve towards a broader and more flexible framework while keeping open the possibility of returning to the alignment initially envisaged once the conflict has subsided. To this end, the possibility of developing key ports in Oman – such as Salalah, Duqm and Muscat – as entry points to the east could be explored, as they are located far from the conflict-prone Strait of Hormuz. Similarly, at the western end, until the port of Haifa becomes a secure transit hub, a western spur passing through Egypt and terminating at one of its main Mediterranean ports could offer a viable alternative. Egypt already has the logistics ecosystem needed to support IMEC, including the Suez Canal Economic Zone, six operational ports and four industrial zones specializing in green hydrogen, liquefied natural gas, shipbuilding and other future-oriented sectors.

To meet the second challenge, countries like India, which enjoy close relations and the trust of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, will have to navigate delicate but critical diplomatic terrain. European countries like Italy and France, which position themselves as the main champions of IMEC in Europe, will also have to play an active role. The growing recognition of the strategic importance of IMEC was evident during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Europe in May 2026. While elevating their bilateral relations to a special strategic partnership, India and Italy reaffirmed their commitment to cooperate on IMEC, recognizing its transformative potential to reshape and promote global trade, connectivity and prosperity.

The main thing is clear. The war in Iran has highlighted the need for transnational connectivity projects such as IMEC, capable of bypassing conflict zones and strategic choke points. However, for such initiatives to succeed, they must overcome the geopolitical complexities of West Asia.

Rajeev Agarwal is a retired colonel, senior research consultant at the Delhi FIU and author of Between Tehran and Tel Aviv – Gaza’s Story of Unending War.

Published - Jun 02, 2026 at 00:16 IST